U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran

U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran
U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran

 U.S.–Israel military campaign against Iran, the situation on the ground, Tehran’s options, and the risks of escalation in the near term (as of March 4, 2026):What has happened so far?

Joint U.S.–Israel Offensive:
A coordinated military campaign—often referred to by Israeli officials as Operation Lion’s Roar—began on 28 February 2026 with intensive air and missile strikes against Iranian strategic and military targets including defense sites, missile infrastructure and command facilities.

High-Level Iranian Leadership Impact:
Reports from multiple outlets indicate that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes.Airspace Control:

Israeli and U.S. forces now claim near-total control of Iranian airspace, asserting significant degradation of Iranian surface-to-air and offensive capabilities.

Iranian Retaliation:
Tehran has launched missile and drone strikes against U.S. bases in the Gulf region and Israeli territory. There are reports of drone attacks reaching Saudi Arabia (including the CIA station in Riyadh) and combat engagements involving Iraqi and Gulf airspaces.

Regional Spillover:
Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon have opened additional fronts against Israel, triggering reciprocal strikes.

Casualties and Economic Impacts:

• Several U.S. service members have been reported killed in the conflict.

• Global oil prices have surged due to disruption of Gulf shipping routes and geopolitical uncertainty.

International Reaction:
Many states, particularly in the Global South, have condemned the offensive as a breach of international law and warned about dangers of escalating warfare.

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2) Iran’s strategic options — the way forward

Given the current dynamics, Iran effectively has four main courses of action:

a) Continue conventional retaliation

Iran is likely to sustain missile/drone strikes on U.S. and Israeli assets as long as it can affect perceived costs. This includes proxy operations through allied militias across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.

Advantages:**

• Preserves regime posture of defending sovereignty.

• Imposes asymmetric costs on U.S. and Israeli forces.

Risks:**

• Draws further retaliation and deeper U.S–Israeli operations inside Iran.

b) Escalate to broader regional conflict

Tehran’s strategy could expand to direct engagements involving the Gulf states, Iraq, and possibly Yemen’s Houthis, targeting critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. This could disrupt global energy flows and mobilise external powers. (Reports confirm such disruptions are already underway.)

c) Harden defenses and attritional resistance

Iran also retains underground infrastructure, mobile missile systems, and hardened air defenses. Focusing on defensive depth and attritional warfare increases costs to the adversary without provoking high-intensity leaps in conflict.

d) Leverage diplomatic or negotiation channels

While current Iranian leadership has rejected negotiations with Washington, international mediation (e.g., by the UN, China, Turkey, or European powers) remains a potential stabilising mechanism—especially if battlefield costs mount for the U.S. or Israel.

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3) Immediate risks — how dangerous could this be in days to come?

✔ Prolongation and intensification of direct strikes:
Military planners on all sides suggest the campaign may expand beyond initial limited goals, prolonging combat and deepening strikes into Iranian territory.

✔ Wider Middle East escalation:

Proxies (Hezbollah, Iraqi militias) and allied states could broaden involvement—potentially drawing Saudi Arabia, UAE, or even indirect Russian/Chinese diplomatic pressures into the conflict.

✔ Strait of Hormuz instability:
Iran has the capacity to close or hinder shipping through Hormuz, threatening global oil supply and potentially triggering military interdictions.

✔ Domestic Iranian instability:
The killing of Khamenei may create internal power struggles and nationalist mobilization, which could harden Tehran’s stance and complicate internal unity. This may limit Iran’s willingness to de-escalate.

✔ Risk of miscalculation:
In fast-moving high-intensity conflict, single incidents (accidental shoot-downs, civilian casualties, strikes on third-party assets) can rapidly widen the war footprint.

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4) Strategic assessment

Best-case scenario:
Limited and controlled de-escalation through international mediation, freeze in direct offensive operations, and negotiation on nuclear and security guarantees.

Worst-case scenario:
Multi-front regional war drawing in proxies and Gulf states, major disruption of global oil markets, and a protracted, high-cost conflict akin to a large conventional war.

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Col Rajendra Shukla

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March 5, 2026 at 10:59AM
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March 5, 2026 at 11:13AM