Hezbollah Altered Assault Strategy At Final Moment, Executed Major Operation Against Israeli Intelligence Headquarters
Why did Nasrallah reduce his Sunday assault, and why did Israel restrict its pre-emptive actions?
After Sunday's exchange of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah, both parties claim to be somewhat content with the outcome. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah outlined the end of the operation in a speech on Sunday night, stating that it was "finished," but leaving open the possibility of future strikes.
Some might characterize his address as apologetic – crafted to clarify to his local audience in Lebanon that Hezbollah had not allowed the killing of its military leader, Faud Shukr, by Israel to go unpunished, and had therefore extracted a retaliation from Israel. Israel assassinated Shukr in a airstrike in Beirut on July 30, just days after a Hezbollah missile took the lives of 12 Israeli children in Majdal Shams on the Golan Heights, in a strike that Israel blamed on Shukr.
Hezbollah's supposed strike on the Glilot military base, which ultimately had no effect, was portrayed by Nasrallah as the primary success of their retaliatory attack, placing particular emphasis on the base's location to the north of Tel Aviv. His argument, which was meant for public consumption, was that Hezbollah had been cautious not to launch direct attacks on Tel Aviv. This was to avoid the potential backlash as per Nasrallah's own comparison, where an attack on Beirut is seen as comparable to an attack on Tel Aviv, would be turned against him.
However, that was not the singular careful decision Nasrallah made. It seems like the group thought about launching accurate missiles at Glilot, which houses the IDF's Unit 8200 intelligence division and the headquarters of the Mossad.
The leader of Hezbollah ultimately made the decision to refrain from using the strategic weapon due to concerns that Israeli retaliation could escalate into a much longer and more detrimental conflict than the previous 10 months of unrest. Determined to prevent this situation, Hezbollah decided to launch drones towards Glilot, estimating that this action would not cause further problems. In the end, Hezbollah has been launching drones into Israel for a full 10 months, so Nasrallah concluded that Israel would not view this as a reason for increased tensions. During the incident, nearly 20 drones were taken out, and none of them managed to go past Acre in the south.
"In terms of military action, Hezbollah's response was unsuccessful in every aspect: They did not successfully hit any specific military targets, suffered the loss of many missile launch sites due to Israel's preemptive strike, and have not yet fully assessed the extent of the damage inflicted by us," stated a high-ranking military officer in an interview with The Times of Israel.
In this situation, Israel should steer clear of bragging. Nasrallah is fully aware of what did not go well for him, as evidenced by his speech on the supposed accomplishments. Irresponsible pronouncements from Israel put Nasrallah in danger of being trapped and may incite him to attack once more. Israel needs to allow him some space to fully comprehend the situation; in the past, we have smartly employed uncertainty to halt a bout of conflict.
Israeli evaluations indicate that one of the causes for Hezbollah's somewhat reduced response is domestic agitation following Shukr's murder. He has been substituted as military leader by Ali Karki, the former head of Hezbollah's southern command. And this meeting has consequently resulted in friction with two additional high-ranking individuals: operations leader Ibrahim Akil and Hezbollah’s security leader, who goes by the name Mortada.
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