Drones and deterrence in the Israel-Hezbollah dynamic

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                        Middle East View | Drones and Deterrence in Israel-Hizbullah Dynamics



In November 2004, a Mirsad-1 drone (an improved version of the Iranian Mohajer) infiltrated Israel for the first time, hovering over the city of Nahariya, conducting surveillance operations and returning to Lebanon, successfully penetrating Israeli air defenses. Over the next two years, Lebanese Hezbollah experimented with several such drone incursions into Israel, sometimes with limited explosive force. The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that the Mirsad could reach any area of ​​Israel. However, during the 2006 Israeli-Lebanon War, Hezbollah made little use of these new weapons, as its arsenal was not yet fully developed. Twenty years later, on June 18, 2024, Lebanon's Hezbollah pulled off another unprecedented feat with its drones. It released a nine-minute video of what it said was a Hezbollah drone over the Israeli port of Haifa. The footage focuses on the Rafael military-industrial complex, showing the main production site for defense equipment, air defense systems, missile storage facilities and test tunnels, the Haifa naval base, the submarine force's headquarters building, and many other locations.

Israeli fighter jets drop flares and a drone is seen from Rafah, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, May 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kreem Hana) (AP) Premium

Israeli fighter jets drop flares and a drone is seen from Rafah, Gaza Strip, Tuesday, May 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Abdel Kreem Hana)(AP)

Over the past decade, two countries, Iran and Turkey, in addition to Israel, have dominated drone production in the Middle East. Despite the drone production capabilities of other Arab countries, many of which are imported from China, Tehran and Ankara have perhaps been the most successful in proving their drone production capabilities in overseas conflicts. For example, Turkey's Bayraktar TB-2 drones have been widely used by the Ukrainian military to harm Russian field forces, and Baikal Defense even set up a drone production facility near Kiev in February. It was the TB-2 that Ukraine reportedly used (along with other platforms) to sink the Russian Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva in April 2022. Turkey has exported drones to over 30 countries, but the TB-2 was most prominently used (and perhaps most publicized) by Azerbaijan in its 2020 war with Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh. The success of the Bayraktar drone marks a change in the nature of warfare, but Turkish drones have been used primarily in conventional warfare between nations. Belligerents have used drones as part of their operations to gain a tactical advantage that can achieve strategic objectives. For nations looking to project their power in nearby regions and beyond, despite significant economic burdens, investment in (relatively) low-cost but highly profitable export platforms such as drones is invaluable.

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