"Strong Punishment": All About China's Military Drills Around Taiwan

 

Taiwan has been autonomous since 1949, when nationalists fled to the island after being defeated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in a civil war on the mainland.

China on Thursday announced a two-day wargame around self-governed Taiwan, with naval ships and military aircraft surrounding the island.

This is what you need to know.

Why did China start such an exercise?

Taiwan has been self-governing since her nationalists fled to the island in 1949 after defeat by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in a civil war on the mainland.

The Chinese government considers the democratic island to be part of its territory, and has not ruled out using force to bring it under its control.

Taiwan's new president Lai Ching-de has been branded a "dangerous separatist" by the Chinese government.

"The Chinese government is concerned that Mr. Lai's push for de facto independence is dangerously close to prompting the international community to support formal independence," said Executive Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute. , Rory Daniels told AFP.

In his inaugural address Monday, Mr. Lai vowed to protect Taiwan's democracy and said the two countries "are not subordinate to each other."

China called the speech a "commitment to independence" and warned of "countermeasures."

On Thursday, the war games were said to be aimed at "strong punishment for attempts at independence".

But Taipei-based security analyst J. Michael Cole said planning for such an exercise must have begun before the speech.

"The Chinese government decided long ago that no matter what Mr. Lai said, it would be dissatisfied and would be 'forced' to respond," he told AFP.

China has already conducted similar military exercises, most notably after then-Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi visited the island in August 2022.

What does China want to achieve?

Analysts say the exercise is primarily a message to Taiwan and her allies.

Amanda Hsiao of the International Crisis Group said, ``This could put pressure on Taiwan and could continue to put pressure on Taiwan if Lai does not return to a more moderate tone and approach.'' "This is a warning to both the Rai government and the U.S. government that something is wrong."

The People's Liberation Army (PLA) wants to prove that it can "quickly blockade the entire island of Taiwan, prevent armed intervention by outside forces, and quickly resolve the Taiwan issue if necessary." Song Zhongping, a former Chinese military officer and analyst, told AFP.

This exercise is also aimed at a home audience.

James Cha, a Chinese military expert at Singapore's Nanyang Technological University (NTU), said these are "demonstrative tools" for the Chinese Communist Party to allay "public nationalist concerns about the regime's ability to defend China's national sovereignty." "This is a well-established method," he said.

Are these exercises different from the previous ones?

The war games are supposed to last two days, but in August 2022 they were held for at least five days.

However, its geographic scope appears to be wider than previous exercises.

"(The exercises) are very close to Taiwan's air defense zone (ADIZ), are violating it, and are getting closer and closer," said Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

This "ultimately forces Taiwan to make some decisions about the rules of engagement."

Beijing now has military aircraft and warships stationed around the island almost every day.

Ben Lewis of the analytics website PLATracker told AFP that he had noticed an increased focus on islands off Taiwan's coast.

The participation of the China Coast Guard in Thursday's drills was also intriguing, Lewis and other analysts said.

That "suggests an interest in signaling prohibition and quarantine," Feigenbaum said.

But overall, Lewis said the exercises will be smaller than the August 2022 ones.

What happens next?

Beijing could choose to extend the war games or launch missiles near Taiwan, as it did after Pelosi's visit.

The situation could escalate through actions such as imposing a full-scale lockdown around the island. However,

NTU's Cha said he believes China is unlikely to take the above steps "based on the recently expressed desire by the United States and China to de-escalate tensions."

Relations had been slowly thawing after the leaders of both countries and governments met in San Francisco in November.

Feigenbaum said the exercises were "not a sign of imminent war."

``Beijing has a regime-wide strategy that includes a wide range of coercive and persuasive measures...In the short term, invasion is the least likely of these measures to be used,'' he said. told AFP.

Much of the Chinese government's toolkit is aimed at "detracting Taiwan from its will to resist" rather than risking costly invasion and occupation, he said.

Analysts said Beijing's military threats against Taiwan are certain to continue.

Dear Readers

We need your support in monetory form either through Pay Pal on shuksrp@gmail.com or UPI 9868031897@ybl as our staff has increased and also we changed old IT hardware with new ones.