How Trump's Hush Money Trial Verdict Could Affect 2024 US Presidential Election

How Trump's Hush Money Trial Verdict Could Affect 2024 US Presidential Election
How Trump's Hush Money Trial Verdict Could Affect 2024 US Presidential Election

 

How the verdict in the Trump hush money trial could impact the 2024 US presidential election

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President Trump pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business documents to conceal payments used to buy the silence of porn star Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 election.

The jury in the first criminal trial against a former US president began deliberations in the Donald Trump hush money trial on Wednesday, considering a verdict that could have far-reaching implications for the 2024 White House campaign.

President Trump has pleaded not guilty to 34 charges of falsifying business records to conceal payments used to buy the silence of porn star Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 election.

Daniels had threatened to go public with details of an alleged sexual encounter she had with President Trump in 2006, though Daniels denies the affair.

The New York case is widely considered the least serious of the four criminal cases against Trump. But it also means that the Republican presidential candidate has spent more time in court than on the campaign trail in recent weeks, drawing undue attention to the only case likely to go to trial before the Nov. 5 campaign against Democrat Joe Biden.

The three possible outcomes of the jury trial could therefore affect the presidential campaign.

Guilty

Polls suggest that a guilty verdict could pose a significant political threat to Trump in an election that could be decided by just tens of thousands of votes in a handful of battleground states.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll of registered voters conducted in April found that one in four Republicans would not vote for Trump if he were found guilty in criminal trial. In the same poll, 60% of independents said they would not vote for Trump if he was found guilty.

Republican and Democratic aides are divided over the impact of a guilty verdict.

Republican pollster Whit Ayers suspects that up to a quarter of Republicans would actually shun Trump if he were convicted. But Ayers said a guilty verdict could help Biden in a close election if a few moderate Republicans and independents are deterred.

But Ayers said the nature of the New York case, brought by Democratic prosecutors and relying on untested legal strategies, would help Trump and his Republican allies portray a guilty verdict as a political assassination.

"If Republicans wanted to design a trial that they could easily dismiss as a partisan witch hunt, they would design the very case being tried in New York," Ayers said.

Tricia McLaughlin, a Republican consultant who worked for Vivek Ramaswami's campaign, said she thought a guilty verdict would have a psychological effect on Trump because he hates to lose. She added that he would almost certainly appeal the guilty verdict, tying up even more financial resources for legal costs.

Bill Galston, an analyst and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington think tank, said he doesn't expect a guilty verdict to have a big impact on the presidential election.

"Ultimately, this comes down to lies about sex. "I think the majority of Americans probably think everyone lies about sex," said Galston, who has worked on Democratic presidential campaigns. He also served in President Bill Clinton's administration at the end of his White House term. The 1990s were marked by sex scandals. Advisers across the political spectrum agree on one thing: An acquittal would be a major win for Trump, especially since he claims the trial was a sham political persecution. During the campaign, the candidate could use the New York acquittal to argue that other cases against him are also legally baseless, McLaughlin said. He faces federal and state charges for trying to overturn his election loss. Biden faced federal indictments in Florida in 2020 and in 2021 for misusing classified documents after leaving the White House. He has pleaded not guilty in all three cases.

"It's great fodder for him," McLaughlin said. "He will say, 'I won this sham trial, this witch hunt in New York, and that's what's going to happen with the other trials.'"

Reuters/Ipsos has not polled on how an acquittal would affect voters' views of the presidential race.

Karen Finney, a Democratic consultant who worked in the Clinton White House, said for Trump's core supporters "an acquittal will make them feel vindicated and validated."

But she said the lurid details that came out in trial testimony and the case's central allegation - that Trump arranged a hush money payment to a porn star - could still damage him even if jurors find him not guilty.

"What's come out during the case could turn off these suburban women that Trump still has a problem with," Finney said, although she said he would play an acquittal as a "huge victory."

The Biden campaign is preparing a statement to be issued after a verdict that will remind supporters that "the only way to beat Trump is at the ballot box," said an official familiar with the campaign's strategy.

Jury can't reach unanimous verdict

If the 12 jurors hearing Trump's case can't agree on a unanimous verdict, the jury...

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