The Kursk invasion of Ukraine shocked Russia

 

The Kursk invasion of Ukraine shocked Russia. Now is the time to negotiate the territories

Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine is more crucial than ever. The dynamics of the war show that both sides are preparing their best bets in anticipation of possible future negotiations.

In a stunning display of strategic initiative, Ukraine has done the unthinkable. It launched its special military operation in Russia last week, more than 900 days after it began military operations in Ukraine. The raid took place in the Kursk region of Russia and was the first time the country had been invaded since World War II. Kursk is not far from the Kharkiv region, where Russia has been trying to make a military advance since February 2024.

It's amazing how Ukraine managed to surprise their much bigger opponent. After all, the country was described by its allies as underarmed and underarmed and having great difficulty in rotating its brigades. But the most shocking thing is that Russia, supposedly the world's second largest military superpower, was completely unable to repel the attack. The pace and depth of the Kursk invasion can be understood when compared to the Russian advance of this year. By 2024, Russia was able to occupy only about 1,300 square kilometers of Ukraine's territory. In comparison, the Ukrainians claim to have occupied 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory in just one week. How did Ukraine manage to achieve this? In principle, this incursion has at least three dimensions. The first aspect is diplomatic. Basically, this effort aims to gain more leverage in future negotiations. Ukraine dominated the Black Sea region, but Russia led the land battle, although the pace of advances was slow.

Ukraine turned the tables with its surprise raid on Kursk. He also took control of Russian territory. Now it is Moscow's turn to address the United Nations and make statements about international law. Now there is room for a negotiation "land by land", where both countries will be on an equal footing. In the best case scenario, the Ukrainian side will try to use Kursk as a bargaining chip for Crimea, as it has many advantages and services. This is not only the most valuable strategic achievement of Vladimir Putin in 2014, but also his control of the important maritime links with the Black Sea. However, a more realistic scenario would be the negotiation for the Kherson and Kharkiv regions. The Donbass region does not seem to be a viable compromise, as 900 days of fighting have destroyed most of its two parts, Donetsk and Luhansk. If a large part of Luhansk was occupied by Russia, a large part of Donetsk also fell prey. Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian War in 2022, this region has experienced one of the most painful and long trench wars of the First World War.

Ukraine has long tried to destabilize Crimea. The capture of Kursk would be better used to strengthen Kiev's position on the peninsula and final negotiations. It should also be noted that after the successful Kursk incursion - and the lack of a strong response from Russia - Ukraine may make incursions in Belgorod, where similar offensive tactics have recently been highlighted.

Second, it is the military aspect of this raid that is truly surprising. From what we see in the geotagged image, we can see that Ukraine launched this operation mainly with two types of armored infantry vehicles: wheeled infantry combat vehicles (ICVs) such as the Strykers made in the United States and ICV tracked as American M2 production. Tedesco made Bradleys and Marders. What also stands out is the position of Germany, which until now has been wary of escalation and has repeatedly refused to hand over Taurus missiles to Ukraine. However, this time, the country did not officially express any opposition to the Ukrainian side using ICV against Russia. This change of attitude from Berlin complements the various statements of French President Emmanuel Macron. Macron has always maintained that sending French troops on the ground was not out of the question. Poland has already been more aggressive towards Russia. If the European powers break the red lines of their aid to Ukraine, the war risks entering another period, with a major kinetic war on both sides.

Coming to another aspect of its military dimension, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's special military operation in Kursk was a stunning success because Ukraine was able to exploit weaknesses in Russian military planning. Moscow's first weakness in planning appears when we analyze the role of Alexei Smirnov, the governor of Kursk. His warnings about the increase in the number of Ukrainian troops in the region were not observed in time by the Russian military authorities.

Ukraine then chose to attack the region between the areas of two military forces whose responsibilities did not coincide. The Ukrainians recognized this gap and went for it.

This shows once again the lack of preparation and flexibility on the part of the Russian side to deal with imminent attacks. Moscow may have fallen victim to the perception of Ukrainians as a country in ruins and the perception that Western support for the country is waning.